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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–7 on winners spread MAE 9.4 24 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northern Iowa @ Murray State -1.8 133.8 41% 74–67 ✓
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State -17.4 134.7 11% 79–56 ✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman +3.1 145.5 56% 84–71 ✗
Lehigh @ Bucknell +4.5 145.9 72% 50–67 ✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M -0.1 136.1 48% 76–85 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -1.2 155.3 38% 75–61 ✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana -5.5 136.4 31% 88–82 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ East Texas A&M -3.6 134.3 32% 76–74 ✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State +16.4 140.7 90% 57–87 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling +4.1 140.0 63% 48–70 ✓
Nicholls @ New Orleans -7.1 150.7 30% 78–62 ✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State -0.3 131.2 46% 75–65 ✓
Incarnate Word @ UT Rio Grande Valley +4.2 144.0 69% 66–60 ✗
Duke @ Virginia -12.6 125.7 13% 80–62 ✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central +5.0 156.5 73% 92–78 ✗
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +9.3 148.7 81% 84–96 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +7.3 138.5 78% 62–68 ✓
Kansas State @ Utah +3.0 145.6 64% 69–74 ✓
Texas Southern @ Southern +7.5 142.8 78% 57–66 ✓
Arizona @ Baylor +1.5 151.5 59% 74–67 ✗
Villanova @ UConn +7.3 137.4 77% 59–66 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +2.6 141.1 60% 56–72 ✓
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine -5.5 146.4 36% 68–94 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan -5.1 147.8 35% 66–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.