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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–18 on winners spread MAE 9.9 50 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
UIC @ Southern Illinois	+4.4	145.1	65%	68–66	✗
Rutgers @ USC	+14.0	153.8	90%	75–78	✓
Bowling Green @ Central Michigan	-10.8	147.6	16%	59–62	✗
Harvard @ Yale	+12.2	145.6	87%	67–65	✗
New Haven @ Saint Francis	+0.0	134.3	50%	81–69	✗
UMBC @ UAlbany	-1.1	142.1	46%	68–65	✓
McNeese @ Lamar	-8.2	143.0	23%	64–63	✓
UConn @ Creighton	-7.7	142.5	24%	85–58	✓
Murray State @ Belmont	+5.7	170.5	70%	86–103	✓
UAB @ North Texas	+0.5	137.3	52%	72–68	✗
Washington @ Northwestern	+1.0	148.5	54%	76–62	✗
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside	+1.3	162.4	55%	94–87	✗
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge	-3.7	158.6	37%	64–81	✗
Georgia State @ South Alabama	+6.7	138.0	73%	67–69	✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona	-4.9	144.7	33%	79–62	✓
South Florida @ Temple	-6.6	165.2	27%	78–79	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana	-1.9	129.8	43%	58–46	✓
Auburn @ Tennessee	+5.8	156.2	70%	69–77	✓
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount	-10.1	149.4	18%	104–73	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara	+7.4	161.3	75%	69–83	✓
Delaware @ UTEP	+2.9	130.6	60%	55–70	✓
Colorado State @ Wyoming	+2.0	144.2	57%	57–68	✓
New Mexico @ San José State	-16.0	146.6	7%	90–80	✓
Pacific @ San Francisco	+3.6	138.8	63%	82–87	✓
Montana @ Sacramento State	-5.4	159.4	31%	79–86	✗
Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston	+12.9	139.0	88%	67–83	✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga	+11.8	148.4	86%	65–73	✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne	+0.7	151.7	52%	61–76	✓
Purdue @ Maryland	-17.2	149.8	6%	93–63	✓
Alabama @ Florida	+6.0	171.0	71%	77–100	✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack	+6.6	145.4	72%	58–75	✓
Siena @ Canisius	-9.6	129.5	19%	78–63	✓
Samford @ Western Carolina	+3.3	160.3	62%	88–74	✗
Chattanooga @ Furman	+10.8	143.3	84%	70–75	✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State	-13.4	160.9	11%	95–61	✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+19.2	149.4	96%	64–99	✓
Wichita State @ Tulsa	+7.6	158.2	75%	83–93	✓
East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic	+17.1	152.7	94%	76–75	✗
TCU @ Colorado	-2.7	158.1	40%	61–87	✗
Minnesota @ Penn State	-1.6	143.5	44%	75–77	✗
Saint Peter's @ Rider	-8.1	133.6	23%	78–81	✗
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield	-0.9	155.7	47%	72–65	✓
Wright State @ Green Bay	-3.9	145.9	36%	83–75	✓
Marist @ Niagara	-11.1	125.7	16%	58–46	✓
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's	+6.1	154.5	71%	65–72	✓
Coastal Carolina @ UL Monroe	-9.4	153.0	20%	83–79	✓
Tulane @ Memphis	+11.3	144.8	85%	78–76	✗
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee	+8.9	163.4	79%	90–88	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland	+7.2	171.3	74%	65–76	✓
Illinois @ Nebraska	+0.7	148.1	53%	78–69	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.