And I'm so pilled up that I rattle. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 9.6 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +9.8 155.7 81% 55–96 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Utah +9.8 152.0 81% 62–83 ✓
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois +2.2 143.5 58% 78–88 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +0.4 142.5 51% 85–84 ✗
Nevada @ Fresno State -12.0 150.3 14% 77–66 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -18.0 152.4 5% 74–65 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar +9.5 118.5 81% 72–63 ✗
Villanova @ St. John's +5.7 153.7 70% 68–80 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne +16.3 152.5 93% 67–90 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook -6.7 141.9 27% 70–66 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +3.4 154.6 62% 54–77 ✓
Alabama @ Texas A&M +0.7 159.9 53% 94–88 ✗
Indiana @ Iowa +4.5 166.6 66% 60–85 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +8.1 147.4 77% 53–58 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho State +8.6 139.2 78% 77–69 ✗
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +5.4 144.8 69% 68–71 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly -1.3 161.1 45% 75–72 ✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +12.6 177.2 87% 104–119 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts -1.6 164.4 44% 79–83 ✗
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech -3.1 130.8 39% 74–79 ✗
Kentucky @ Mississippi State +4.7 165.6 67% 95–90 ✗
UT Arlington @ Southern Utah +1.6 158.2 56% 68–73 ✓
Washington State @ Gonzaga +18.6 165.8 95% 75–88 ✓
Boise State @ Utah State +6.8 151.6 73% 79–81 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech +5.9 130.1 70% 54–58 ✓
New Mexico State @ UTEP +7.5 138.9 75% 85–57 ✗
Baylor @ Arizona State -3.5 146.2 38% 72–66 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.2 149.3 42% 90–94 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego +5.3 137.8 69% 60–52 ✗
Saint Mary's @ San Diego -14.5 136.1 9% 103–56 ✓
Oregon State @ Pacific -11.3 143.0 15% 91–55 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Seattle U +10.7 139.4 83% 64–66 ✓
UCF @ Arizona +20.6 161.2 97% 80–88 ✓
Michigan State @ Northwestern -2.9 139.0 40% 78–68 ✓
Nebraska @ Purdue +6.7 139.8 73% 68–104 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +10.1 151.9 82% 66–91 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +7.7 134.5 76% 68–65 ✗
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +6.1 157.6 71% 75–71 ✗
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut +9.4 125.0 80% 54–52 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Iona -1.1 141.9 46% 63–62 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Canisius -6.3 132.7 28% 62–49 ✓
Washington @ Michigan +20.1 150.7 97% 75–91 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Le Moyne +5.3 141.4 68% 63–79 ✓
Stonehill @ Chicago State -3.9 135.4 36% 68–52 ✓
Wright State @ Robert Morris +0.7 148.4 53% 72–75 ✓
Fairfield @ Marist +10.1 139.1 82% 51–61 ✓
Manhattan @ Merrimack +8.2 145.5 77% 62–69 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +6.9 148.9 74% 71–73 ✓
West Virginia @ Colorado -3.6 135.3 37% 78–70 ✓
Charlotte @ Tulsa +0.4 147.4 52% 63–69 ✓
Mercer @ Western Carolina -5.9 152.3 30% 82–85 ✗
Oregon @ Penn State +0.8 157.8 53% 82–81 ✗
UAB @ Florida Atlantic +7.7 173.4 76% 81–76 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock +7.5 132.0 75% 58–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.