Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–12 on winners spread MAE 7.3 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Old Dominion @ Charlotte +3.2 134.3 62% 67–71 ✓
Maine @ New Hampshire +16.1 127.5 93% 61–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +6.5 128.5 72% 69–62 ✗
Boston University @ Lafayette -4.6 134.4 34% 81–62 ✓
SMU @ South Florida -6.1 127.5 29% 74–54 ✓
Army @ Lehigh -0.4 145.3 49% 71–84 ✗
Holy Cross @ American University +4.4 137.8 66% 49–67 ✓
Navy @ Bucknell -10.1 136.4 18% 81–63 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Longwood +10.9 141.3 84% 71–79 ✓
Radford @ High Point +5.1 130.4 68% 58–63 ✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern -5.0 132.7 32% 62–61 ✓
Hampton @ Campbell +11.4 118.6 85% 60–75 ✓
Miami @ Virginia Tech +6.5 136.8 72% 78–75 ✗
Boston College @ North Carolina +12.5 146.4 87% 47–58 ✓
Vermont @ Stony Brook -7.7 142.9 24% 80–67 ✓
NJIT @ UMBC +9.9 137.1 82% 69–73 ✓
Binghamton @ Hartford +2.0 143.6 57% 60–72 ✓
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +5.4 125.0 69% 64–62 ✗
Bradley @ Valparaiso -2.3 136.0 42% 71–56 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Evansville -11.1 134.0 16% 64–59 ✓
Massachusetts @ La Salle +0.2 158.8 51% 77–71 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason +2.8 134.0 60% 66–75 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's +7.5 141.8 75% 61–72 ✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga +7.1 136.1 74% 60–71 ✓
VMI @ Furman +10.0 156.2 82% 64–79 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +3.7 123.3 63% 80–76 ✗
Western Carolina @ The Citadel +7.8 161.4 76% 66–68 ✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina +0.7 128.0 53% 61–70 ✓
Arkansas @ Ole Miss -4.4 142.5 34% 64–55 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State +1.5 123.3 55% 84–81 ✗
UCF @ Wichita State +3.8 135.4 63% 79–84 ✓
Tarleton State @ Lamar -7.9 127.8 24% 62–57 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley -4.1 154.3 35% 87–85 ✓
Oklahoma @ West Virginia +1.1 129.5 54% 72–62 ✗
Drake @ Illinois State -2.8 155.6 40% 89–88 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Louis +18.9 139.7 96% 67–80 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +1.6 148.5 56% 61–75 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall +5.0 148.4 67% 73–63 ✗
VCU @ Davidson +4.9 125.3 67% 70–68 ✗
Penn State @ Indiana +7.9 123.9 76% 57–74 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU +14.0 125.5 90% 64–70 ✓
Tulsa @ Tulane +4.8 141.1 67% 63–97 ✓
NC State @ Notre Dame +6.5 149.0 72% 65–73 ✓
Florida State @ Georgia Tech -5.4 136.2 31% 61–75 ✗
Utah @ Washington State +9.1 136.4 80% 54–71 ✓
Sam Houston @ California Baptist +1.1 137.0 54% 73–68 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Seattle U +4.5 140.6 66% 62–70 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +1.1 126.4 54% 57–75 ✓
Wisconsin @ Nebraska -10.4 150.3 17% 73–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.8 157.8 67% 73–77 ✓
Arkansas State @ App State +3.3 132.4 62% 54–61 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.