I'm the all night drug prowling wolf who looks so sick in sun / I'm the white man in the Palais "White Man in Hammersmith Palais" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–10 on winners spread MAE 9.1 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Clemson @ Duke +12.8 147.4 88% 69–71 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +6.9 145.7 74% 55–56 ✓
DePaul @ Villanova +16.6 137.2 93% 43–67 ✓
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky +0.1 146.7 50% 63–73 ✓
William & Mary @ Charleston +17.8 155.2 95% 73–74 ✓
Fordham @ Dayton +11.9 126.9 86% 61–68 ✓
Columbia @ Yale +19.2 149.6 96% 72–83 ✓
Siena @ Iona +20.1 139.4 97% 57–74 ✓
Cincinnati @ Temple -2.6 130.3 41% 58–61 ✗
Missouri State @ Indiana State -7.0 146.1 26% 72–76 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Ohio +16.7 132.1 94% 62–74 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green +5.6 162.1 69% 71–85 ✓
Akron @ Central Michigan -10.8 138.3 16% 60–56 ✓
Western Michigan @ Kent State +13.4 129.9 89% 64–75 ✓
Buffalo @ Toledo +8.2 156.0 77% 75–86 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ball State -1.5 156.4 45% 64–81 ✗
Kansas State @ Baylor +14.2 133.9 90% 49–74 ✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota State +3.2 149.4 61% 56–77 ✓
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh -5.0 142.8 33% 53–64 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +12.3 127.8 87% 47–59 ✓
Maryland @ Rutgers +1.9 131.8 57% 68–60 ✗
Auburn @ Missouri -17.2 143.3 6% 55–54 ✓
Georgetown @ UConn +20.8 156.2 97% 73–96 ✓
Mississippi State @ Kentucky +10.8 146.4 84% 74–82 ✓
Texas @ TCU -2.0 116.3 43% 73–50 ✓
Nevada @ Colorado State +13.0 155.2 88% 66–77 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico -5.0 140.3 32% 65–60 ✓
Wyoming @ Boise State +2.9 129.4 60% 62–65 ✓
Colorado @ Oregon +6.5 139.8 72% 82–78 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge -4.7 131.5 33% 72–45 ✓
Air Force @ San José State +0.6 121.8 52% 63–53 ✗
Arizona @ UCLA -5.3 156.5 31% 59–75 ✗
Florida @ Tennessee +10.0 136.1 82% 71–78 ✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -1.1 149.6 46% 95–91 ✓
Providence @ Xavier +8.5 138.2 78% 65–62 ✗
Creighton @ Butler -6.5 124.5 28% 55–72 ✗
Northwestern @ Michigan +7.0 142.8 74% 70–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.