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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–11 on winners spread MAE 9.2 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Dakota @ Western Illinois +6.7 150.2 73% 75–72 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +7.3 136.8 75% 71–77 ✓
Bellarmine @ Jacksonville State +9.2 137.6 80% 60–65 ✓
Florida @ Ole Miss -7.1 131.7 26% 54–70 ✗
Towson @ Delaware -1.7 145.9 44% 69–62 ✓
Lafayette @ American University -0.3 137.7 49% 69–56 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern +1.6 130.3 56% 74–68 ✗
Tennessee State @ Morehead State +13.4 138.5 89% 54–67 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +9.1 140.9 80% 52–65 ✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State +14.0 145.2 90% 62–82 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia +4.2 119.8 65% 52–64 ✓
New Hampshire @ Maine -12.6 126.3 13% 64–71 ✗
Hartford @ Binghamton +3.6 144.8 63% 64–74 ✓
Howard @ Coppin State -4.4 154.3 35% 81–83 ✗
Jackson State @ Florida A&M +0.2 118.5 51% 64–67 ✓
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman -3.4 128.5 38% 70–67 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Maryland Eastern Shore +4.0 133.5 64% 75–63 ✗
South Carolina State @ Delaware State -12.1 142.1 14% 64–62 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona +1.7 131.7 56% 65–70 ✓
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina +1.8 139.8 56% 68–78 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Murray State +19.2 141.3 96% 53–79 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin +0.9 144.0 53% 70–76 ✓
Alabama State @ Texas Southern +13.3 138.5 89% 66–73 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Southern +25.0 150.8 99% 72–100 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Prairie View A&M +5.5 139.8 69% 48–72 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Grambling +10.1 143.6 82% 65–76 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas +5.9 142.8 71% 91–94 ✓
UNLV @ San Diego State +9.9 121.0 82% 55–80 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State -10.0 138.8 18% 89–63 ✓
San Diego @ Santa Clara +11.3 143.9 85% 74–78 ✓
St. John's @ Seton Hall +12.8 157.3 88% 84–63 ✗
Weber State @ Southern Utah +2.8 154.4 60% 92–84 ✗
Idaho @ Portland State +5.6 147.8 70% 84–79 ✗
Arizona State @ USC +15.2 133.6 92% 56–78 ✓
Richmond @ Rhode Island +3.1 133.8 61% 70–63 ✗
Alabama @ Georgia -14.8 160.2 9% 76–82 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.