The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–13 on winners spread MAE 9.1 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Gardner-Webb @ Florida State +10.8 148.6 84% 59–72 ✓
Morgan State @ Delaware -2.6 139.1 41% 65–59 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Wagner +3.1 130.1 61% 46–74 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Washington State +10.0 124.4 82% 62–90 ✓
Belmont @ Evansville -8.5 142.2 22% 72–63 ✓
Sam Houston @ UT Rio Grande Valley +3.6 148.7 63% 69–66 ✗
Hampton @ Charleston Southern +4.2 131.3 65% 67–55 ✗
Charleston @ Georgia State +20.5 170.2 97% 55–72 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Butler -2.0 143.3 43% 76–73 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Baylor +44.9 162.4 100% 42–99 ✓
Longwood @ Virginia Tech +15.1 144.1 92% 58–84 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Mississippi State +37.5 159.4 100% 48–87 ✓
Tulsa @ Memphis +10.8 137.7 84% 56–49 ✗
Little Rock @ Missouri State +7.8 146.3 76% 77–85 ✓
Northwestern State @ Gonzaga +41.2 182.1 100% 57–95 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Stanford +18.5 135.7 95% 50–63 ✓
Texas Southern @ BYU +12.8 141.3 88% 71–87 ✓
Murray State @ Austin Peay -5.1 145.7 32% 70–74 ✗
San José State @ Utah State +14.8 147.0 91% 62–107 ✓
New Mexico @ Boise State +9.3 133.6 80% 53–77 ✓
Maine @ Boston College +9.1 141.6 80% 62–78 ✓
Alcorn State @ Liberty +24.7 141.4 99% 65–108 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Indiana State +12.9 141.2 88% 66–72 ✓
William & Mary @ Virginia +19.3 129.0 96% 40–76 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Toledo +26.7 135.7 99% 55–78 ✓
Charlotte @ George Washington -0.2 140.9 49% 66–65 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Denver +10.6 154.1 83% 68–65 ✗
Hofstra @ Richmond +12.1 149.5 86% 76–71 ✗
Mercer @ Kennesaw State -10.6 124.2 17% 81–71 ✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan -0.5 131.5 48% 76–68 ✓
Ohio @ Akron -9.2 149.6 20% 70–90 ✗
Niagara @ UAlbany +4.6 122.6 66% 70–65 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fairfield +0.5 145.7 52% 69–65 ✗
Vermont @ UMass Lowell +5.6 140.3 70% 62–53 ✗
Montana State @ Portland -2.1 162.6 43% 59–62 ✗
App State @ Auburn +14.3 136.1 90% 53–67 ✓
Presbyterian @ The Citadel +17.1 146.3 94% 82–94 ✓
Chattanooga @ Tennessee State -10.9 139.3 16% 66–63 ✓
Tulane @ East Carolina +9.9 128.0 82% 58–68 ✓
Colorado State @ Santa Clara -3.3 108.6 38% 70–57 ✓
James Madison @ VCU +23.8 143.3 98% 81–82 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +7.8 135.4 76% 70–75 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Wagner +3.1 130.1 61% 86–85 ✗
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +8.1 121.2 77% 64–69 ✓
Seattle U @ California +10.1 119.9 82% 65–70 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Arkansas +11.7 132.6 86% 72–85 ✓
UT Martin @ Ole Miss +24.1 137.4 99% 43–90 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina A&T -4.3 142.9 35% 86–65 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Marshall +13.3 152.5 89% 67–88 ✓
Hampton @ Charleston Southern +4.2 131.3 65% 70–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.