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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–3 on winners
spread MAE 12.1
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan State
@
Northwestern
|
+9.2 | 160.2 | 80% | 65–79 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
San Francisco
|
+4.7 | 140.1 | 67% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Minnesota
|
-10.3 | 159.6 | 17% | 82–90 | ✗ |
Washington
@
Colorado
|
+19.5 | 123.9 | 96% | 69–92 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Clemson
|
+26.6 | 114.6 | 99% | 51–66 | ✓ |
VMI
@
George Mason
|
+1.7 | 142.2 | 56% | 66–68 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Campbell
|
+1.1 | 146.7 | 54% | 78–59 | ✗ |
Wofford
@
Texas A&M
|
+2.4 | 135.5 | 59% | 52–70 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Kansas State
|
+5.2 | 145.5 | 68% | 46–70 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Rice
|
+15.0 | 141.7 | 91% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Texas State
|
+15.4 | 132.3 | 92% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Massachusetts
|
+12.9 | 186.2 | 88% | 93–88 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Furman
|
+30.8 | 142.8 | 100% | 52–118 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Tennessee
|
+28.8 | 150.5 | 100% | 66–102 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.