We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–8 on winners spread MAE 10.0 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Nebraska @ Wisconsin +17.7 137.5 95% 53–67 ✓
Bradley @ Missouri +16.9 134.1 94% 53–54 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -1.7 139.3 44% 69–67 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State +10.0 141.0 82% 76–79 ✓
North Dakota @ Drake +20.0 140.0 97% 55–88 ✓
Wichita State @ South Florida +0.9 137.2 53% 82–77 ✗
Montana @ Arizona +10.6 130.3 83% 64–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Davidson +8.6 127.4 78% 65–85 ✓
High Point @ Eastern Kentucky +2.4 158.7 59% 67–86 ✓
Louisville @ Pittsburgh +3.8 137.7 64% 64–54 ✗
La Salle @ Maryland +17.2 130.0 94% 71–84 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Florida Gulf Coast +3.0 138.6 61% 60–73 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Western Kentucky +16.7 143.8 94% 68–88 ✓
Lamar @ UTSA +4.4 140.5 65% 66–88 ✓
Northeastern @ Georgia +8.1 139.6 77% 58–76 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Alabama +13.1 132.1 88% 69–85 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UL Monroe -6.5 138.9 28% 68–57 ✓
Temple @ Houston +17.1 132.7 94% 50–76 ✓
Northwestern State @ Gonzaga +40.0 174.3 100% 78–95 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +4.7 140.5 67% 65–79 ✓
Purdue @ Iowa +12.6 168.0 87% 55–70 ✓
Portland State @ Oregon State +8.2 149.9 77% 62–67 ✓
San Diego State @ Saint Mary's +1.2 121.9 54% 74–49 ✗
North Dakota State @ TCU +9.6 119.8 81% 82–89 ✓
Colorado @ Grand Canyon -15.3 132.7 8% 74–64 ✓
Bellarmine @ Notre Dame +5.2 146.6 68% 70–81 ✓
Delaware State @ UNC Wilmington +29.8 162.8 100% 63–87 ✓
Saint Peter's @ St. Francis Brooklyn -4.1 143.8 35% 70–64 ✓
NJIT @ Rider -1.0 139.2 46% 81–66 ✓
Xavier @ Creighton +5.8 164.7 70% 61–66 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Grambling +7.6 132.2 76% 77–70 ✗
Towson @ George Mason +8.9 138.3 79% 65–70 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +7.4 125.1 75% 71–56 ✗
Rutgers @ Ohio State -0.4 145.1 49% 68–80 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Tennessee +37.2 138.6 100% 60–80 ✓
Northwestern State @ Washington State +19.8 140.8 96% 52–62 ✓
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +15.2 152.8 92% 67–78 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Pepperdine +8.7 145.6 79% 79–51 ✗
Providence @ Butler -2.9 147.3 40% 64–70 ✗
Illinois @ Penn State -1.1 154.6 46% 98–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.