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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
40–10 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
50 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+14.5 | 144.6 | 87% | 57–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 138.7 | 82% | 66–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.2 | 149.5 | 88% | 79–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 141.0 | 46% | 84–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 141.0 | 48% | 56–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.8 | 148.3 | 88% | 86–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 164.9 | 75% | 81–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 140.2 | 76% | 80–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.3 | 161.4 | 49% | 98–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.1 | 135.0 | 15% | 80–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 142.5 | 82% | 70–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 140.0 | 81% | 66–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 134.4 | 74% | 61–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.8 | 138.1 | 27% | 93–98 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.9 | 143.5 | 35% | 77–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 138.5 | 36% | 66–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 141.5 | 82% | 80–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.2 | 135.2 | 64% | 57–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 157.1 | 36% | 79–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 139.4 | 69% | 76–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 144.1 | 64% | 63–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 152.3 | 65% | 61–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 141.4 | 22% | 79–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 150.8 | 86% | 59–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 158.3 | 46% | 80–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 127.8 | 62% | 62–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 145.0 | 63% | 87–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 146.0 | 33% | 87–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 134.4 | 87% | 65–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 131.8 | 40% | 77–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 140.2 | 55% | 68–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-13.1 | 151.3 | 14% | 105–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.9 | 142.1 | 39% | 79–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.2 | 132.3 | 76% | 53–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 131.9 | 48% | 61–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 165.6 | 50% | 79–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.0 | 149.5 | 86% | 63–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 147.6 | 77% | 68–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 146.0 | 62% | 82–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.5 | 128.9 | 86% | 48–50 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 143.7 | 56% | 87–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.1 | 146.0 | 18% | 82–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 132.9 | 73% | 59–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 133.9 | 57% | 61–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 134.5 | 86% | 47–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 138.4 | 75% | 57–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.7 | 160.2 | 14% | 112–103 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 150.5 | 78% | 77–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 145.6 | 55% | 81–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.1 | 152.1 | 25% | 72–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.