Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MAN +250 FAIR -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +7 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -8.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -9.1 (+2.1) | 146.0 (+11.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -8.8 (+1.8) | 143.2 (+13.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -9.1 (+2.1) | 142.9 (+14.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -10.0 (+3.0) | 144.1 (+12.9) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 14-6 |
| Home | 3-10 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#339) | -0.0 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#322) | 0.02 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.99 (#343) | -0.15 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#282) | 0.501 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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