Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -800 MISS +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +23 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -14.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -13.3 (+9.7) | 150.8 (-9.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -12.9 (+10.1) | 151.8 (-10.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -12.0 (+11.0) | 149.6 (-8.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -12.2 (+10.8) | 149.9 (-8.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#9) | 7.0 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#13) | 2.82 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#11) | 3.21 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#19) | 0.628 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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