Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | VILL +145 CONN -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +1 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -1.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -0.3 (-0.7) | 138.5 (-7.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -0.4 (-0.6) | 141.1 (-10.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -0.4 (-0.6) | 141.8 (-10.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -1.1 (-2.1) | 141.8 (-10.8) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 18-2 |
| Home | 10-6 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#34) | 17.0 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#59) | 3.42 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#60) | 4.23 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#37) | 0.632 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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