Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MTST +180 MONT -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +10 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -3.9 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -2.7 (-7.3) | 146.0 (+18.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -2.7 (-7.3) | 147.2 (+16.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -3.6 (-6.4) | 149.9 (+14.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -3.6 (-6.4) | 147.4 (+16.6) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MTST 82 – 71 MONT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MTST 76 – 67 MONT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MONT 89 – 85 MTST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MONT 77 – 70 MTST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MTST 85 – 70 MONT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#250) | 3.2 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#228) | 0.51 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#224) | 0.59 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#258) | 0.549 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 18.7% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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