We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Southern Conference · Freedom Hall (TN) · January 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UTC -1.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money ETSU -111 / UTC -115
Model Predictions
Spread Total ETSU win
Actual UTC +7 155 Lost
Massey ETSU -2.0 (-9.0) — —
Massey Totals — 142.8 (+12.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 67% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 70% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ ETSU -1.6 (-8.6) 145.6 (+9.4) 55% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML ETSU -0.4 (-7.4) 141.9 (+13.1) 54% ✗
Baseline ML ETSU -0.0 (-7.0) 142.5 (+12.5) 48% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UTC -0.2 (-6.8) 144.0 (+11.0) 52% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 12, 2026 ETSU 73 – 61 UTC
Jan 22, 2026 ETSU 67 – 66 UTC
Feb 16, 2025 UTC 78 – 71 ETSU
Jan 25, 2025 UTC 71 – 63 ETSU
Mar 10, 2024 ETSU 85 – 84 UTC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ETSU UTC
Overall 19-16 21-12
Conference 8-10 12-6
Home 10-4 12-4
Away 5-11 8-7
Neutral 4-1 1-1
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.4 76.8
Avg Pts Against 70.8 73.1
Massey -2.5 (#206) -0.8 (#183)
Bradley-Terry -0.12 (#183) -0.12 (#181)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.19 (#193) -0.28 (#201)
RPI 0.501 (#171) 0.482 (#203)
Shooting & Four Factors ETSU UTC
FG% 39.6% 44.1%
3PT% 29.9% 33.2%
REB / G 36.9 37.0
OREB / G 12.8 9.6
AST / TO 0.92 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.9% 52.6%
TOV% 17.1% 17.2%
ORB% 31.9% 27.5%
FT Rate 23.3% 22.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.9% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 18.0% 15.5%
DRB% 68.0% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 26.8% 19.1%

Game Analysis

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