Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -111 UTC -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +7 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -2.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -1.6 (-8.6) | 145.6 (+9.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -0.4 (-7.4) | 141.9 (+13.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -0.0 (-7.0) | 142.5 (+12.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -0.2 (-6.8) | 144.0 (+11.0) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#206) | -0.8 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#183) | -0.12 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#193) | -0.28 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#171) | 0.482 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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