Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | USF -200 WICH +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | USF -6.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -4.6 (-0.6) | 147.6 (-7.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -5.6 (-1.6) | 145.0 (-5.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -6.3 (-2.3) | 145.9 (-5.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -6.2 (-2.2) | 147.6 (-7.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | USF 70 – 55 WICH |
| Feb 12, 2026 | USF 66 – 58 WICH |
| Jan 18, 2026 | WICH 86 – 85 USF |
| Mar 13, 2025 | WICH 73 – 68 USF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | WICH 75 – 70 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | WICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#128) | 0.6 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#117) | 0.20 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#137) | 0.24 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#118) | 0.518 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | WICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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