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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–11 on winners spread MAE 9.5 50 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Gardner-Webb @ Florida State	+10.0	142.6	83%	59–72	✓
Morgan State @ Delaware	-0.1	133.6	54%	65–59	✓
Sacred Heart @ Wagner	+3.5	131.9	56%	46–74	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Washington State	+8.2	129.9	79%	62–90	✓
Belmont @ Evansville	-6.4	145.2	28%	72–63	✓
Sam Houston @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+3.3	144.4	63%	69–66	✗
Hampton @ Charleston Southern	+0.2	133.3	25%	67–55	✗
Charleston @ Georgia State	+12.3	150.7	84%	55–72	✓
Southern Illinois @ Butler	-0.5	138.9	45%	76–73	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Baylor	+24.9	155.6	91%	42–99	✓
Longwood @ Virginia Tech	+12.3	135.4	85%	58–84	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Mississippi State	+23.7	148.0	90%	48–87	✓
Tulsa @ Memphis	+7.3	136.6	77%	56–49	✗
Little Rock @ Missouri State	—	—	—	77–85	—
Northwestern State @ Gonzaga	+22.4	164.4	90%	57–95	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Stanford	+12.7	133.7	84%	50–63	✓
Texas Southern @ BYU	+10.2	139.8	83%	71–87	✓
Murray State @ Austin Peay	-2.8	137.4	44%	70–74	✗
San José State @ Utah State	+11.2	147.1	86%	62–107	✓
New Mexico @ Boise State	—	—	—	53–77	—
Maine @ Boston College	+5.6	138.5	75%	62–78	✓
Alcorn State @ Liberty	+18.1	145.7	90%	65–108	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Indiana State	+8.4	138.0	78%	66–72	✓
William & Mary @ Virginia	+16.6	130.3	89%	40–76	✓
Northern Illinois @ Toledo	+18.5	140.9	90%	55–78	✓
Charlotte @ George Washington	+1.2	134.8	40%	66–65	✗
Northern Arizona @ Denver	+5.3	136.5	48%	68–65	✗
Hofstra @ Richmond	+8.0	150.0	71%	76–71	✗
Mercer @ Kennesaw State	-7.4	137.8	19%	81–71	✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan	-0.2	133.3	38%	76–68	✓
Ohio @ Akron	—	—	—	70–90	—
Niagara @ UAlbany	+2.9	130.6	57%	70–65	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fairfield	+1.6	138.4	47%	69–65	✗
Vermont @ UMass Lowell	—	—	—	62–53	—
Montana State @ Portland	+0.1	153.2	65%	59–62	✓
App State @ Auburn	+10.9	141.0	83%	53–67	✓
Presbyterian @ The Citadel	+11.7	154.5	84%	82–94	✓
Chattanooga @ Tennessee State	-6.9	139.6	22%	66–63	✓
Tulane @ East Carolina	+6.5	130.0	74%	58–68	✓
Colorado State @ Santa Clara	-1.2	125.9	31%	70–57	✓
James Madison @ VCU	+16.2	141.7	90%	81–82	✓
Cincinnati @ UCF	+4.0	137.8	66%	70–75	✓
Sacred Heart @ Wagner	+3.2	130.9	65%	86–85	✗
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado	+3.4	129.1	52%	64–69	✓
Seattle U @ California	+6.9	127.6	76%	65–70	✓
Abilene Christian @ Arkansas	+11.0	142.0	86%	72–85	✓
UT Martin @ Ole Miss	+20.6	137.3	90%	43–90	✓
UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina A&T	-4.1	141.8	29%	86–65	✓
UNC Asheville @ Marshall	+9.6	150.1	81%	67–88	✓
Hampton @ Charleston Southern	+1.0	133.0	28%	70–68	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.