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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–15 on winners spread MAE 8.4 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida @ Georgia -3.4 164.1 42% 86–66 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +8.0 136.1 80% 76–66 ✗
American University @ Lehigh -0.4 139.1 47% 82–90 ✗
UTSA @ East Carolina +9.0 140.7 83% 72–88 ✓
California @ Syracuse +2.0 143.1 61% 100–107 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +2.2 140.9 62% 68–54 ✗
Toledo @ Western Michigan -3.6 147.5 35% 90–79 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +5.8 141.7 76% 91–95 ✓
Buffalo @ Ball State -4.6 136.3 30% 63–53 ✓
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +10.0 148.1 83% 71–92 ✓
Wofford @ Samford +1.3 145.5 59% 80–97 ✓
Furman @ Mercer +4.1 147.6 69% 64–69 ✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State +13.8 141.9 88% 61–73 ✓
Alabama @ Ole Miss -5.2 156.6 28% 93–74 ✓
West Georgia @ North Alabama -0.4 142.7 43% 82–73 ✓
North Florida @ Florida Gulf Coast +10.5 160.7 85% 81–90 ✓
Jacksonville @ Stetson +0.2 140.4 50% 62–67 ✓
Austin Peay @ Queens University -0.7 152.8 47% 95–87 ✓
UTEP @ Jacksonville State +4.7 131.3 70% 69–64 ✗
UConn @ Butler -7.3 146.8 22% 80–70 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +0.3 143.9 51% 66–77 ✓
South Florida @ Wichita State +1.6 154.7 55% 66–58 ✗
Providence @ Seton Hall +6.2 147.9 73% 80–87 ✓
Marshall @ Old Dominion -4.2 148.2 34% 81–79 ✓
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas +8.8 151.6 82% 76–84 ✓
Colorado @ Texas Tech +12.2 157.9 87% 44–78 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Rice -4.5 149.0 33% 73–81 ✗
UAB @ Tulsa +11.0 154.8 85% 68–63 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota +2.5 154.5 65% 72–71 ✗
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois -5.8 139.2 31% 68–52 ✓
Troy @ Texas State -3.7 142.6 37% 62–74 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +15.0 155.1 89% 70–103 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern -3.2 136.8 36% 81–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +6.5 154.5 77% 61–75 ✓
Michigan @ Northwestern -13.9 148.4 16% 87–75 ✓
Cincinnati @ Kansas State +0.6 141.4 53% 91–62 ✗
Creighton @ DePaul +0.4 137.3 54% 71–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech -3.0 150.0 39% 83–67 ✓
Stanford @ Boston College -3.3 132.6 35% 70–64 ✓
Tennessee @ Mississippi State -7.3 146.0 21% 73–64 ✓
Missouri @ Texas A&M +8.4 158.6 80% 86–85 ✗
Liberty @ New Mexico State -3.9 141.4 32% 77–75 ✓
Portland @ San Diego +1.2 149.8 56% 58–71 ✓
Seattle U @ Santa Clara +13.3 139.9 88% 72–84 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +21.8 140.7 91% 60–88 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific +5.7 135.5 74% 59–65 ✓
New Mexico @ Grand Canyon +1.4 141.8 57% 70–64 ✗
Penn State @ Washington +11.9 147.4 87% 63–60 ✗
NJIT @ New Hampshire +0.4 140.6 54% 76–70 ✗
UMBC @ Maine -4.7 132.0 29% 78–62 ✓
Bryant @ UMass Lowell +3.2 137.5 63% 69–88 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -5.2 159.6 29% 84–81 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -11.8 136.8 15% 73–65 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State +2.7 148.3 66% 90–87 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.