Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | IUIN +200 NKU -245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IUIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +3 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | NKU -5.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -5.2 (+2.2) | 159.6 (+5.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -4.0 (+1.0) | 156.0 (+9.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -4.8 (+1.8) | 161.5 (+3.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -4.4 (+1.4) | 161.4 (+3.6) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | NKU 81 – 72 IUIN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | NKU 71 – 67 IUIN |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NKU 66 – 64 IUIN |
| Feb 25, 2024 | NKU 80 – 64 IUIN |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NKU 71 – 55 IUIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IUIN | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 89.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#313) | -1.5 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#327) | -0.36 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#320) | -0.46 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#351) | 0.482 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IUIN | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.6% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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