Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -650 UTSA +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +16 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -11.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -8.0 (+8.0) | 145.1 (+14.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -9.0 (+7.0) | 140.7 (+19.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -9.5 (+6.5) | 140.5 (+19.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -9.2 (+6.8) | 142.8 (+17.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ECU 82 – 81 UTSA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ECU 70 – 65 UTSA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ECU 96 – 89 UTSA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ECU 80 – 79 UTSA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ECU 84 – 73 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 1-17 |
| Home | 7-10 | 2-12 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 82.9 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#282) | -15.5 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#289) | -2.27 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#305) | -2.76 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#254) | 0.419 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 61.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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