Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +105 ECU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +1 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -1.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -0.5 (-1.5) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -1.8 (-2.8) | 146.8 (+12.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -0.8 (-1.8) | 147.3 (+11.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -0.9 (-1.9) | 148.5 (+10.5) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ECU 82 – 81 UTSA |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ECU 88 – 72 UTSA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ECU 70 – 65 UTSA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ECU 96 – 89 UTSA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ECU 84 – 73 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#206) | -0.8 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | -0.28 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#197) | -0.56 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#160) | 0.482 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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