Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LEH +102 AMER -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEH +8 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -0.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.4 (+8.4) | 139.1 (+32.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -1.0 (+9.0) | 141.0 (+31.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -1.3 (+9.3) | 141.6 (+30.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.6 (+8.6) | 139.8 (+32.2) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | LEH 78 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 8, 2025 | AMER 78 – 75 LEH |
| Jan 23, 2025 | AMER 68 – 67 LEH |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LEH 70 – 68 AMER |
| Jan 4, 2024 | AMER 75 – 66 LEH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEH | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#298) | -5.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#317) | -1.02 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#339) | -1.19 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#302) | 0.466 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEH | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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