Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -260 LEH +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -6.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -5.9 (-4.9) | 134.5 (+0.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -5.4 (-4.4) | 136.0 (-1.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -6.2 (-5.2) | 135.1 (-0.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -6.2 (-5.2) | 134.7 (+0.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | LEH 78 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 12, 2026 | LEH 90 – 82 AMER |
| Feb 8, 2025 | AMER 78 – 75 LEH |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LEH 70 – 68 AMER |
| Jan 4, 2024 | AMER 75 – 66 LEH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#254) | -8.7 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#219) | -1.42 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#219) | -2.14 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#196) | 0.440 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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