Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -120 LEH +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -2.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -1.6 (+7.4) | 143.0 (-2.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -1.5 (+7.5) | 143.1 (-2.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -2.1 (+6.9) | 145.5 (-4.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -1.4 (+7.6) | 143.2 (-2.2) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | LEH 78 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 12, 2026 | LEH 90 – 82 AMER |
| Feb 8, 2025 | AMER 78 – 75 LEH |
| Jan 23, 2025 | AMER 68 – 67 LEH |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LEH 70 – 68 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-9 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#275) | -3.4 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#302) | -2.30 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#315) | -1.91 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#293) | 0.440 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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