I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–14 on winners spread MAE 8.7 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ South Carolina -8.7 156.5 18% 88–68 ✓
Ole Miss @ Arkansas +3.1 142.7 64% 73–66 ✗
Presbyterian @ South Carolina Upstate -5.5 144.7 26% 67–77 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Longwood +3.7 149.0 69% 76–85 ✓
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb +2.3 152.5 62% 83–89 ✓
High Point @ Charleston Southern -4.7 147.1 29% 93–79 ✓
Colorado @ UCF +3.1 146.6 66% 74–75 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte -5.7 155.6 28% 75–64 ✓
Temple @ East Carolina +0.0 144.4 50% 79–80 ✓
Florida State @ Miami -3.1 153.7 34% 80–65 ✓
Notre Dame @ NC State +2.7 139.5 64% 65–66 ✓
George Washington @ Rhode Island +6.2 145.5 73% 75–67 ✗
Richmond @ George Mason +12.6 132.0 87% 58–64 ✓
Fordham @ VCU +15.4 146.5 89% 61–73 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Duquesne -0.8 131.1 45% 81–85 ✗
Dayton @ Massachusetts -10.7 146.8 16% 72–76 ✗
Murray State @ Northern Iowa +6.8 141.2 75% 71–68 ✗
Drake @ Bradley +3.6 132.8 68% 64–57 ✗
Lehigh @ Colgate +1.3 136.5 58% 62–67 ✓
American University @ Boston University +2.8 131.3 64% 54–60 ✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell +4.1 135.3 66% 62–65 ✓
USC @ Indiana +6.5 145.8 76% 69–82 ✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris +2.5 141.6 63% 80–69 ✗
Milwaukee @ Purdue Fort Wayne +3.5 153.1 68% 73–78 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford +14.8 140.1 89% 69–77 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer -0.2 151.5 50% 70–68 ✓
Furman @ The Citadel -14.0 135.3 13% 67–63 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Belmont +9.6 153.6 84% 86–90 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Louis -2.7 137.2 34% 68–73 ✗
Indiana State @ Valparaiso +2.6 160.7 65% 95–98 ✓
Illinois State @ Evansville -7.6 132.2 21% 51–69 ✗
Butler @ Providence +2.4 135.3 61% 65–84 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State +1.9 146.0 60% 78–82 ✓
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma +1.1 142.7 53% 80–78 ✗
Arizona State @ Kansas +12.6 140.0 85% 55–74 ✓
Penn State @ Illinois +12.8 161.6 84% 52–91 ✓
San Diego @ Gonzaga +21.9 150.1 91% 80–93 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +9.3 126.2 79% 59–81 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Stanford +8.5 143.5 80% 59–70 ✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +4.3 152.9 71% 72–73 ✓
Kansas City @ Omaha +1.0 139.7 53% 58–77 ✓
Air Force @ San Diego State +17.3 132.0 90% 38–67 ✓
Virginia @ California +2.5 132.2 62% 61–75 ✓
Morehead State @ Little Rock +6.0 131.5 73% 59–53 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga -0.1 140.8 50% 78–75 ✓
Oregon @ Ohio State +3.4 151.5 66% 73–71 ✗
Purdue @ Rutgers -4.8 147.8 30% 68–50 ✓
Binghamton @ Maine +3.9 135.2 66% 71–82 ✓
Vermont @ UMass Lowell +7.3 138.4 80% 67–63 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis +0.5 137.8 52% 61–95 ✓
Jacksonville @ Bellarmine -8.8 139.5 19% 74–59 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.