Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | KU -1800 ASU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +19 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | KU -12.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -11.9 (+7.1) | 142.5 (-13.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -12.6 (+6.4) | 140.0 (-11.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -11.1 (+7.9) | 139.6 (-10.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -10.8 (+8.2) | 142.6 (-13.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ASU 70 – 60 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#12) | 10.7 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#19) | 2.70 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#18) | 3.27 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#5) | 0.640 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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