Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | IU -270 USC +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | IU -7.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -7.3 (+5.7) | 146.3 (+4.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -6.5 (+6.5) | 145.8 (+5.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -6.4 (+6.6) | 146.5 (+4.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -6.2 (+6.8) | 146.6 (+4.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | USC 81 – 75 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#57) | 6.8 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#42) | 0.87 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#44) | 1.52 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#26) | 0.522 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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