Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -190 UVA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -4.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -2.3 (+11.7) | 130.7 (+5.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -2.9 (+11.1) | 131.4 (+4.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -2.5 (+11.5) | 132.2 (+3.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -2.1 (+11.9) | 132.8 (+3.2) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | UVA 84 – 60 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#116) | 2.4 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#147) | 1.26 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#150) | 1.75 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#148) | 0.555 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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