Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -1200 CAL +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +24 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -10.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -10.1 (+13.9) | 146.7 (-2.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UVA -9.0 (+15.0) | 147.0 (-3.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UVA -8.9 (+15.1) | 145.8 (-1.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -9.0 (+15.0) | 146.3 (-2.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2025 | CAL 75 – 61 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 17-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#30) | 9.3 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#35) | 2.15 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#33) | 2.57 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#40) | 0.570 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.