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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–16 on winners spread MAE 7.8 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Notre Dame @ Clemson +2.2 137.1 60% 76–61 ✗
Vermont @ UAlbany -9.4 132.5 18% 76–63 ✓
Hartford @ NJIT +2.3 137.8 61% 65–49 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.0 141.9 68% 66–73 ✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama +5.4 140.0 72% 51–70 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford +11.2 140.8 87% 57–69 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +1.2 152.9 57% 79–85 ✓
Canisius @ Marist +7.1 141.5 78% 70–71 ✓
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan +0.2 141.6 51% 63–77 ✓
South Florida @ Wichita State +11.5 128.5 87% 69–73 ✓
Cincinnati @ Tulsa -4.1 136.0 31% 77–83 ✗
Utah @ Colorado +6.1 139.8 72% 76–81 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State +0.1 140.1 50% 77–63 ✗
Pacific @ San Diego +6.7 135.3 75% 54–60 ✓
Evansville @ Southern Illinois +9.8 126.4 84% 62–69 ✓
Drake @ Bradley +2.9 140.2 66% 59–68 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +7.7 150.8 79% 86–91 ✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas -4.1 147.0 30% 75–64 ✓
Mississippi State @ LSU +9.4 137.5 81% 65–69 ✓
Air Force @ San Diego State +13.4 125.7 87% 64–76 ✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri +0.4 134.7 51% 68–74 ✓
Penn State @ Minnesota +2.4 131.1 62% 70–76 ✓
Portland State @ Montana +4.6 142.6 70% 76–85 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech -9.0 138.9 18% 60–61 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State -11.9 140.2 14% 74–52 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +12.9 150.9 86% 58–74 ✓
UCLA @ USC -1.0 140.1 47% 64–67 ✗
Arizona State @ Washington State +11.5 136.4 87% 58–55 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +3.8 131.9 65% 71–65 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly -7.6 129.6 24% 69–64 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ California Baptist +5.3 152.8 71% 72–80 ✓
BYU @ Pepperdine -11.2 148.4 16% 91–85 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland +1.4 143.3 60% 76–86 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon State -5.1 140.5 28% 76–65 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +1.0 135.0 58% 55–72 ✓
UConn @ St. John's -2.2 152.8 40% 63–60 ✓
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +8.5 144.1 81% 73–68 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +4.2 141.4 68% 75–71 ✗
Maryland @ Purdue +12.5 156.0 88% 61–62 ✓
Stony Brook @ Maine -7.4 139.0 23% 85–74 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +6.8 146.7 78% 59–75 ✓
Monmouth @ Iona +7.0 143.6 76% 62–70 ✓
Siena @ Rider +1.7 134.8 59% 76–75 ✗
Northwestern @ Illinois +9.7 142.9 83% 66–73 ✓
UAB @ Old Dominion -7.7 139.7 19% 72–81 ✗
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +3.0 132.2 59% 44–54 ✓
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +4.3 150.4 67% 83–66 ✗
Nebraska @ Iowa +16.3 160.1 90% 75–98 ✓
Marshall @ UTEP +7.9 144.3 80% 88–79 ✗
Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee +6.3 148.3 76% 63–78 ✓
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro +4.2 133.0 70% 73–64 ✗
Colorado State @ Boise State +3.1 133.8 67% 77–74 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago +8.9 138.6 80% 58–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.