Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–13 on winners spread MAE 8.9 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +9.0 134.1 78% 69–76 ✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner +12.6 150.1 88% 71–69 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Long Island University +8.5 137.6 77% 58–60 ✓
New Haven @ Le Moyne +3.4 133.5 59% 47–73 ✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT +0.6 134.4 37% 76–80 ✓
Binghamton @ Vermont +17.8 147.9 91% 59–60 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern -1.9 138.3 36% 87–78 ✓
Elon @ North Carolina A&T -3.5 158.2 34% 69–64 ✓
Hampton @ Campbell +4.9 142.7 68% 72–86 ✓
William & Mary @ Monmouth -4.0 145.5 32% 70–81 ✗
Stony Brook @ Drexel +0.5 132.4 57% 37–56 ✓
App State @ Georgia State -2.2 137.3 44% 52–50 ✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina +3.3 142.4 61% 70–66 ✗
West Georgia @ North Florida -3.0 156.3 42% 85–73 ✓
Queens University @ Jacksonville -1.6 153.5 42% 77–51 ✓
North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky +3.9 139.7 64% 80–88 ✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson -11.0 144.4 14% 83–91 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine +0.3 150.8 58% 78–84 ✓
Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.0 149.2 58% 82–71 ✗
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech -4.2 130.0 32% 72–56 ✓
UT Martin @ Morehead State -3.2 134.5 39% 76–68 ✓
Delaware @ Sam Houston +11.9 140.2 85% 60–72 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota State +4.2 159.8 72% 79–87 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City -7.9 143.9 22% 97–73 ✓
North Dakota @ Omaha +3.5 143.0 62% 79–90 ✓
Texas State @ Southern Miss +9.5 144.4 82% 70–80 ✓
Weber State @ Northern Arizona -2.2 145.2 41% 78–65 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +2.0 150.7 68% 72–85 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +22.5 149.7 91% 72–89 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State +8.3 144.6 81% 84–80 ✗
Rutgers @ Illinois +23.1 145.8 91% 55–81 ✓
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois -7.4 140.9 24% 90–68 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana -5.5 139.5 28% 84–76 ✓
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville +5.6 132.4 62% 73–70 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois +1.3 137.7 55% 61–71 ✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +5.3 138.1 51% 79–85 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara +2.6 147.3 62% 93–86 ✗
Montana @ Idaho +4.9 148.3 70% 79–73 ✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington -4.0 149.5 33% 68–64 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP -8.2 133.5 22% 80–83 ✗
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State +2.5 150.2 63% 64–80 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego +3.9 140.3 65% 63–83 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield +1.1 145.9 62% 66–67 ✓
Seattle U @ Oregon State -4.8 140.5 32% 55–68 ✗
Pacific @ Portland -3.5 140.6 37% 89–90 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge +4.4 161.2 72% 90–95 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine +10.6 141.5 84% 64–74 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego +13.2 158.6 88% 88–71 ✗
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +5.6 139.8 70% 72–84 ✓
Ohio State @ Oregon -0.5 150.3 49% 72–62 ✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount +1.1 136.2 53% 82–84 ✓
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga +17.2 157.0 87% 77–89 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Toledo -2.9 156.9 38% 87–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.