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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–10 on winners spread MAE 9.8 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Navy @ North Carolina +16.5 150.9 85% 61–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Delaware +5.8 142.0 72% 70–81 ✓
NJIT @ Drexel +1.0 141.3 51% 43–75 ✓
Towson @ James Madison +0.4 128.5 50% 75–81 ✓
New Haven @ Seton Hall +25.8 126.7 90% 45–68 ✓
New Hampshire @ Providence +15.9 149.5 86% 66–98 ✓
UT Martin @ Florida State +10.9 153.6 78% 73–87 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina +18.4 151.2 87% 58–87 ✓
Princeton @ Iona +13.4 150.0 85% 69–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Xavier +4.2 142.6 67% 69–99 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Detroit Mercy +1.3 149.9 43% 72–62 ✗
Jacksonville @ George Mason +13.0 132.6 82% 57–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Longwood +12.3 130.5 86% 83–82 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Kent State +11.4 156.5 83% 78–93 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Charleston Southern +3.5 163.7 69% 91–103 ✓
East Carolina @ UNC Wilmington +10.2 142.9 80% 60–85 ✓
Boston University @ Columbia +7.7 146.5 75% 49–54 ✓
Hampton @ Boston College +14.0 133.9 85% 52–63 ✓
Holy Cross @ Brown +0.3 136.9 54% 49–68 ✓
Saint Francis @ Lehigh +15.6 140.8 89% 62–79 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia Tech +8.7 150.3 79% 66–68 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Morgan State +3.5 151.1 69% 79–73 ✗
Winthrop @ Arkansas +8.6 153.5 76% 83–84 ✓
Alcorn State @ LSU +36.9 153.5 91% 81–107 ✓
Austin Peay @ Ole Miss +8.3 134.8 76% 65–72 ✓
Montana @ Texas A&M +4.5 154.5 56% 81–86 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ DePaul +14.5 145.3 86% 62–93 ✓
Little Rock @ Murray State +22.8 151.2 90% 68–89 ✓
UT Arlington @ Evansville +0.1 128.8 37% 84–76 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Texas State +2.4 137.1 65% 49–63 ✓
Chicago State @ Minnesota +23.9 143.5 90% 54–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +18.7 138.0 87% 57–70 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ SMU +21.0 155.0 90% 60–106 ✓
Rhode Island @ Yale +22.5 149.0 90% 86–77 ✗
Army @ Cornell +20.3 152.8 90% 73–86 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa +21.7 146.4 88% 70–99 ✓
Kansas @ Duke +9.0 143.1 78% 66–78 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Fresno State -2.8 141.4 43% 78–80 ✗
Grambling @ San Diego +5.2 141.9 75% 68–78 ✓
Wichita State @ Boise State +6.1 147.0 67% 59–62 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Utah +13.7 152.6 84% 77–85 ✓
Monmouth @ Syracuse +28.1 125.7 90% 73–78 ✓
Rider @ Texas +27.3 132.5 91% 65–99 ✓
New Orleans @ Pepperdine -2.8 143.7 41% 79–90 ✗
Southern @ Washington +27.5 151.1 91% 93–99 ✓
Northwestern State @ San Francisco +17.6 146.4 88% 64–84 ✓
UC Davis @ Nevada +7.7 145.1 80% 75–71 ✗
Troy @ San Diego State +15.7 133.4 80% 108–107 ✗
Idaho State @ Santa Clara +16.0 148.4 84% 55–64 ✓
UC Riverside @ California Baptist +13.8 142.3 84% 57–80 ✓
Louisiana @ Stanford +21.9 136.9 88% 66–93 ✓
Presbyterian @ California +19.4 137.9 88% 57–67 ✓
Sacramento State @ UCLA +13.7 140.4 83% 48–79 ✓
Alabama State @ Air Force -1.2 136.5 53% 64–66 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Michigan +20.3 153.2 87% 61–86 ✓
Harvard @ Penn State +19.2 139.3 87% 80–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.