Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -225 UNO +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +11 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UNO -3.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNO -1.4 (+12.4) | 144.0 (+25.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNO -2.8 (+13.8) | 143.7 (+25.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNO -2.9 (+13.9) | 146.7 (+22.3) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 5-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 9-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#231) | 7.2 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#301) | 2.72 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#294) | 3.99 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#299) | 0.791 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 10.2% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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