Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | BC -1200 HAMP +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +11 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | BC -16.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -9.4 (+1.6) | 138.4 (-23.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -11.8 (-0.8) | 134.8 (-19.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -14.0 (-3.0) | 133.9 (-18.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -13.1 (-2.1) | 135.3 (-20.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#117) | -5.8 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#225) | -1.31 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#179) | -1.98 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#270) | 0.364 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 45.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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