Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -4000 MONT +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +5 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -3.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -5.1 (-0.1) | 158.7 (+8.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -4.8 (+0.2) | 155.6 (+11.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -4.5 (+0.5) | 154.5 (+12.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -4.3 (+0.7) | 158.3 (+8.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#175) | 3.8 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#266) | 2.19 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#271) | 3.76 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#287) | 0.682 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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