Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -20000 NAVY +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -14.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -19.5 (-7.5) | 152.5 (-18.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -13.7 (-1.7) | 148.3 (-14.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -16.5 (-4.5) | 150.9 (-16.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -15.2 (-3.2) | 149.1 (-15.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 17-1 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#35) | 4.6 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#76) | 1.07 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#72) | 1.92 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#117) | 0.663 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 47.5 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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