Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +46 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -23.5 (+22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -21.6 (+24.4) | 153.7 (+12.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SMU -21.7 (+24.3) | 156.4 (+9.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | SMU -17.1 (+28.9) | 153.4 (+12.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -21.0 (+25.0) | 155.0 (+11.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#83) | -10.6 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#41) | -1.34 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#44) | -1.86 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.691 (#23) | 0.458 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 37.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 58.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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