Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -800 KU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -12.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -10.7 (+1.3) | 144.8 (-0.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -8.5 (+3.5) | 143.3 (+0.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -9.0 (+3.0) | 143.1 (+0.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -8.9 (+3.1) | 146.1 (-2.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | KU 75 – 72 DUKE |
| Nov 16, 2022 | KU 69 – 64 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | KU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 13-2 |
| Away | 10-1 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 25.1 (#1) | 12.8 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#24) | 0.65 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.89 (#23) | 1.05 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#47) | 0.520 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | KU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.98 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.7% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.1% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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