Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | DEP -7500 GWEB +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +31 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -15.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -14.0 (+17.0) | 143.8 (+11.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -12.7 (+18.3) | 144.4 (+10.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -14.5 (+16.5) | 145.3 (+9.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -14.5 (+16.5) | 143.8 (+11.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 4-29 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 1-15 |
| Home | 11-7 | 3-10 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 86.7 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#186) | -9.4 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#259) | -1.14 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#241) | -1.68 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#232) | 0.381 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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