Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -2500 TROY +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +1 | 215 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -14.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+76.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -12.4 (-13.4) | 140.8 (+74.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -12.5 (-13.5) | 133.5 (+81.5) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -15.7 (-16.7) | 133.4 (+81.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -12.6 (-13.6) | 135.3 (+79.7) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2022 | SDSU 60 – 55 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#50) | 2.4 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#97) | 1.83 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#93) | 2.24 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#116) | 0.597 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 42.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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