Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -1200 TROY +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +5 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -9.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -8.2 (-3.2) | 142.3 (-27.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -8.6 (-3.6) | 147.2 (-32.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -8.0 (-3.0) | 146.8 (-31.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -8.1 (-3.1) | 146.4 (-31.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | TROY 108 – 107 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#46) | 4.9 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#54) | 0.52 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#54) | 1.20 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#21) | 0.500 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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