Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | WASH -6000 SOU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +6 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | WASH -26.2 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (+29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -21.6 (-15.6) | 155.0 (+37.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -21.7 (-15.7) | 153.3 (+38.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -27.5 (-21.5) | 151.1 (+40.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -27.8 (-21.8) | 151.7 (+40.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#43) | -8.7 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#102) | -1.30 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#100) | -1.94 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#114) | 0.401 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 11.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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