Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -1200 UCD +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +4 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -11.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -11.0 (-15.0) | 141.6 (+4.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -7.7 (-11.7) | 144.1 (+1.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -7.7 (-11.7) | 145.1 (+0.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -7.7 (-11.7) | 146.2 (-0.2) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | NEV 80 – 68 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#131) | -1.7 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#71) | 0.78 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#95) | 1.68 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.736 (#11) | 0.590 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 37.2% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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