Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -7500 UL +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +27 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -24.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -19.9 (+7.1) | 134.7 (+24.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -18.2 (+8.8) | 137.1 (+21.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -21.9 (+5.1) | 136.9 (+22.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -21.5 (+5.5) | 135.4 (+23.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#72) | -10.1 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#28) | -2.13 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#13) | -3.46 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.669 (#32) | 0.269 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 48.4% |
Game Analysis
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