Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -7500 WIN +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +1 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -6.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -7.1 (-6.1) | 156.9 (+10.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -6.8 (-5.8) | 152.4 (+14.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -8.6 (-7.6) | 153.5 (+13.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -8.3 (-7.3) | 157.5 (+9.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-3 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#64) | 8.3 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#111) | -0.10 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#123) | -0.24 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#133) | 0.485 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 11.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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