Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +26 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -35.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -26.9 (-0.9) | 153.4 (+34.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -24.9 (+1.1) | 152.8 (+35.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -36.9 (-10.9) | 153.5 (+34.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -35.3 (-9.3) | 151.3 (+36.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-8 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#8) | -11.3 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#15) | -1.96 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.63 (#10) | -2.86 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.713 (#16) | 0.379 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 25.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 41.2% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 57.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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