Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -100000 MTSU +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +25 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -18.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -17.0 (+8.0) | 149.6 (-2.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -20.3 (+4.7) | 153.2 (-6.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -18.6 (+6.4) | 153.2 (-6.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 11-0 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 12-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.3 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#23) | 2.2 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#18) | 1.51 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#27) | 2.05 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.686 (#26) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 44.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 81.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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