Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -100000 UNH +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +32 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -19.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -16.1 (+15.9) | 147.3 (+16.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | PROV -16.0 (+16.0) | 152.4 (+11.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | PROV -13.8 (+18.2) | 147.1 (+16.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -15.9 (+16.1) | 149.5 (+14.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2021 | PROV 69 – 58 UNH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#128) | -10.0 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#160) | -1.21 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#138) | -1.91 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#98) | 0.479 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 40.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 17.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 12.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 41.0% |
Game Analysis
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