Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +11 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -15.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | PROV -12.6 (-1.6) | 144.1 (-17.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -17.1 (-6.1) | 142.5 (-15.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -16.8 (-5.8) | 144.7 (-17.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | PROV 98 – 66 UNH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#40) | 2.2 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#18) | -0.32 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#25) | -0.41 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#72) | 0.625 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 44.4% |
Game Analysis
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