Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | AF -140 ALST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | AF -0.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -1.0 (+3.0) | 139.2 (-9.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -0.1 (+1.9) | 134.8 (-4.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.2 (+3.2) | 136.5 (-6.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -2.1 (+4.1) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 7-11 |
| Home | 3-15 | 5-4 |
| Away | 0-12 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L25 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#333) | -4.1 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#340) | 1.10 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#331) | 1.90 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#238) | 0.594 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 25.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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